Top 3 Backtest

Running the live model on each season's real top 3, month by month

Same methodology powering the live Team Championship Odds — rank distributions, program-strength offsets, and individual track-record modifiers — run against the three teams that actually finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd each season. The individual modifier is refit out-of-sample for every season shown here, excluding that season's own results, so nothing is leaking the answer into its own prediction.

Shaded band = 90% confidence range (5th–95th percentile), 10,000 simulated trials/team/month End marker = real final NCAA result